Trump’s Surprising Shift on Ukraine: Max Boot Weighs In
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from July 16, 2025 | Russia’s War on Ukraine: Trump, Putin, Zelensky, and the Search for Peace. The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the speaker.
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, foreign policy analyst and historian Max Boot explored the sudden evolution of former President Donald Trump’s stance on Ukraine and Russia. A weekly columnist for The Washington Post and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Boot has long criticized Trump’s pro-Russia leanings. But recent statements by the former president—indicating support for Ukraine and threats against Vladimir Putin’s regime—mark a striking shift. Boot offered analysis on what this means for the conflict in Ukraine, Trump’s political calculus, and the broader implications for U.S. foreign policy.
A Sudden Pivot from Putin
Boot expressed cautious optimism over Trump’s new approach, calling it a “pleasant surprise.” After years of siding with Russia and blaming Ukraine for the war, Trump recently authorized the sale of U.S. weapons—via European allies—to support Ukraine’s defense. Most notably, this includes Patriot missile systems, which are critical to fending off Russian air attacks. Trump also announced plans to impose 100% tariffs on Russia and its trading partners if Putin does not agree to peace terms within 50 days.
Boot acknowledged that such tariffs may not materialize, calling them the “less credible part” of Trump’s statement. Imposing 100% tariffs on Russia’s key trade partners like China and India could destabilize global markets and spark a recession. Nonetheless, the rhetoric alone signals a notable change—one that Putin likely did not anticipate.
A New Chapter for Ukraine?
Despite uncertainty about Trump’s follow-through, Boot believes the shift could disrupt Putin’s calculations. Until now, the Kremlin viewed Trump as an ally who would eventually abandon Ukraine. But by signaling support and threatening penalties, Trump may be demonstrating a growing awareness of Russia’s disrespect and unwillingness to negotiate in good faith.
Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to hold firm. Boot pointed to Ukraine’s resilience and military innovation, particularly in drone technology. With plans to produce over 4 million drones this year—compared to about 100,000 in the U.S.—Ukraine is redefining modern warfare and maintaining its sovereignty despite immense pressure.
Politics, Peace Prizes, and Public Perception
What’s driving Trump’s sudden change? Boot doesn’t claim to know for sure, but he offered several theories. Trump may be seeking a legacy-defining peace deal—or even a Nobel Prize. The move also helps neutralize criticism from bipartisan voices in Congress who support Ukraine. Boot noted that there’s little political downside for Trump in shifting his rhetoric. The MAGA base has shown a willingness to accept contradictions, and hawkish messaging could strengthen his tough-on-foreign-policy persona.
Rhetoric vs. Reality
Still, Boot remains skeptical about how far Trump’s support will go. The proposed 50-day deadline for tariffs may give Putin time to intensify his attacks. And while Trump has floated bold threats, the Russian stock market rose in response—suggesting markets, like Boot, doubt he’ll follow through.
Boot also emphasized that if Trump truly wants to end the war, the most effective action would be to speed up weapons deliveries and unlock the $50 billion in frozen Russian assets held by U.S. banks to fund Ukraine’s defense. Those steps, he argues, would send a far clearer signal to Moscow than rhetoric alone.
A Cautious Hope
While wary of Trump’s unpredictability, Boot sees the latest developments as a step in the right direction. “It’s not as good as I would like to see,” he said, “but it’s a lot better than what I had feared.” Whether this marks a lasting shift in Trump’s foreign policy remains to be seen. But for now, Ukraine may have reason to hope that the United States, even under Trump’s leadership, is not walking away.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.