Democracy, Gerrymandering, and 2026: Rick Hasen on What Comes Next for American Elections
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from November 5, 2025 | Can Democracy Hold? The 2026 Midterm Challenge. The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the speaker.
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, UCLA professor of law and political science Rick Hasen, one of the nation’s leading experts on election law and democratic systems, joined moderator Larry Mantle to unpack what recent election results mean for the future of American democracy. The conversation explored how voter sentiment, partisan gerrymandering, and looming legal battles over voting rights are shaping the landscape as the country looks ahead to the 2026 midterm elections and beyond.
Reading the 2026 Midterm Tea Leaves
Hasen began by situating the latest Democratic victories—governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, and California’s Proposition 50—within a broader national mood. While it’s easy to cast these results as a straightforward repudiation of Donald Trump, he noted that the picture is more complex.
Yes, Trump looms large: ads around Proposition 50 explicitly framed the measure as a way to “stick it to Trump,” and many voters clearly responded to that message. But Hasen pointed out that anxiety about a faltering economy, a government shutdown, and disruptions such as canceled flights and strained social safety programs all feed into an anti-incumbent environment. These factors create headwinds for Republicans heading into 2026 and suggest a potentially favorable midterm climate for Democrats, who tend to benefit when they’re out of the White House.
Proposition 50 and the New Gerrymandering Arms Race
A major focus of the conversation was California’s Proposition 50, which temporarily replaces the state’s independent redistricting commission for congressional seats with a Democratic-drawn map. For a state whose voters once championed taking politics out of redistricting, that’s a striking shift.
Hasen argued that Prop 50 can’t be understood in isolation. It’s part of an escalating “arms race” in which states controlled by each party use redistricting to maximize their advantage. Republican-dominated states like Texas have aggressively gerrymandered to add safe GOP seats, and Prop 50 is, in many ways, California Democrats’ response.
Even so, Hasen emphasized that Republicans still have more structural opportunities to gerrymander because they control more state governments. After the dust settles, he expects Republicans could gain several net seats nationwide—enough to matter in a closely divided House, but not necessarily enough to guarantee long-term control, especially if a Democratic “wave” materializes.
Courts, Lawsuits, and the Purcell Principle
Hasen also unpacked the California Republican Party’s lawsuit targeting the congressional maps enacted under Proposition 50. The core claim is that the maps are an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, prioritizing Latino representation over traditional redistricting principles.
Legally, that’s a high bar. The U.S. Supreme Court has said federal courts can’t police partisan gerrymandering—but they can strike down racial gerrymanders. The challenge for Republicans is proving that race, not partisanship, was the predominant motive behind the new maps, even though the entire debate around Prop 50 has clearly been partisan.
Timing may be an even bigger obstacle. Hasen explained the Purcell principle, a doctrine that discourages federal courts from changing election rules too close to an election for fear of voter confusion and administrative chaos. Even if Republicans had strong claims, the courts might refuse to intervene before 2026 simply because it’s too late in the cycle. Any changes might not take effect until 2028 or later.
What’s at Stake for Voting Rights
Beyond California, Hasen warned of broader threats to voting rights nationwide. One key area is documentary proof-of-citizenship laws, which require voters to show a passport, birth certificate, or similar paperwork to register. He views these laws as much more dangerous than simple voter ID requirements because they can silently disenfranchise tens of thousands of eligible voters who lack ready access to documents.
At the same time, the Supreme Court is considering cases, including one out of Louisiana, that could significantly weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which has long been a central tool for protecting minority voting power. Hasen expects the law may not be struck down outright, but may be narrowed to the point where it offers far less protection than in past decades.
How Voters Can Bolster Democracy
Despite the troubling trends, Hasen ended on a note of cautious optimism rooted in the decentralized structure of American elections. Because elections are run locally, there are many points of entry for citizens who want to help protect the process.
He urged people to serve as poll workers, volunteer as election observers, help with nonpartisan voter registration, and support local election officials facing pressure and threats. Business, civic, and religious leaders, he said, have a particularly important role in publicly backing fair, transparent election administration.
In a time of gerrymandering, legal uncertainty, and mounting distrust, Hasen’s message was clear: the rules of the game matter enormously—but so does the willingness of ordinary citizens to show up and defend them.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.