Bob Greenstein on How Policy Mechanics, State Budgets, and Lost Data Will Shape the Next Chapter
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from January 14, 2026 | The Politics of Hunger: Confronting Poverty in a Time of Division and Crisis. The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the speaker.
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, Bob Greenstein, founder and president emeritus of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, unpacked what the latest changes to the SNAP program actually do—and why their most damaging effects may only become visible over time. Rather than focusing on rhetoric, Greenstein walked through the policy mechanics, fiscal pressures, and data consequences that together could reverse decades of progress against poverty.
Error Is Not Fraud—and the System Knows the Difference Poorly
Greenstein began by challenging a central justification for the new law: that high “error rates” in SNAP reflect poor oversight. In reality, he explained, most errors are technical, not fraudulent. SNAP doesn’t simply determine whether someone is eligible; it must calculate the exact dollar amount a household receives, and that amount changes as income changes.
For many recipients working in low-wage or hourly jobs, income fluctuates week to week. A benefit amount determined in March may be technically “wrong” by June—not because anyone lied, but because hours shifted. Under current measurement rules, those discrepancies are counted as overpayments, even when eligibility itself never changed.
The Paradox: Cutting Oversight While Demanding Perfection
If the goal were truly to reduce errors, Greenstein argued, the solution would be straightforward: invest in administration. More staff, better electronic income cross-checks, simplified eligibility rules, and improved security for benefit cards would all help.
Instead, the new law cuts the federal share of administrative costs and rolls back simplifications that had reduced mistakes in prior years. The result, Greenstein warned, is a paradox: states are being penalized for errors while being given fewer tools to prevent them.
The Scale of the Cuts—and the Programs They Compound
According to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, the law will cut SNAP by $187 billion through 2034, the largest reduction in the program’s history. Crucially, these cuts coincide with even deeper reductions to Medicaid.
That overlap matters. Many households rely on both programs, and rising healthcare costs quickly crowd out food budgets. SNAP cuts don’t happen in isolation; they interact with housing costs, medical bills, and employment instability, amplifying hardship across entire households.
When Costs Shift to States, Cuts Multiply
Greenstein emphasized that the federal cuts are only the beginning. States are now required to absorb a share of SNAP benefit costs—a major departure from the program’s historic structure. Because nearly all states must balance their budgets annually, this creates intense pressure to reduce spending.
When the economy weakens, need rises just as state revenues fall. Faced with new SNAP obligations, states may respond by tightening enrollment, eliminating optional protections, or making participation harder—even for eligible families. Greenstein noted that federal analysts expect some states may eventually withdraw from SNAP altogether.
Work Requirements as Time Limits
Greenstein described the new work requirements not as incentives, but as time limits. Under the current structure, adults can lose benefits after three months if they do not meet a strict hourly threshold—even if they are actively seeking work but cannot find it.
The policy is especially punitive, he argued, because traditional safeguards were removed. In the past, areas with high unemployment could receive temporary waivers. Now, those waivers only trigger at unemployment levels rarely seen even in major recessions. Older workers, people experiencing homelessness, and youth aging out of foster care are newly exposed to cutoff.
Measuring Poverty—Then Eliminating the Measure
One of Greenstein’s deepest concerns lies in how the effects of these changes will be tracked. He urged audiences not to rely on the outdated “official” poverty measure, which excludes key benefits like SNAP and tax credits. The more accurate Supplemental Poverty Measure shows that poverty fell substantially over the past half-century—largely because of safety net expansions.
That progress is now at risk. Compounding the problem, the administration has moved to eliminate the federal food insecurity data series, a key tool for measuring hunger nationwide. Without it, Greenstein warned, the public may lose visibility into the true human impact of policy changes.
The Fiscal Reality Ahead
Greenstein closed by addressing revenue. While he supports higher taxes on high incomes and closing corporate loopholes, he cautioned that a stronger safety net cannot be funded on those measures alone. Other wealthy democracies sustain broader protections through broader-based revenue.
His concluding message was sober but clear: SNAP’s future will be shaped not just in Congress, but in statehouses, budget rooms, and data systems. How those choices are made will determine whether decades of progress against poverty are preserved—or undone.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.
