Alexander Vindman on “The Folly of Realism” — How Short-Term Thinking Enabled Russia
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from August 20, 2025 | How the West Deceived Itself About Russia and Betrayed Ukraine. The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the speaker.
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, Lieutenant Colonel (Ret.) Alexander Vindman—a Purple Heart recipient, former National Security Council director for European affairs, and author of The Folly of Realism—explained how decades of Western policy misjudgments toward Russia helped pave the road to today’s war in Ukraine. The conversation aimed to unpack the historical roots of those errors, assess the current moment, and outline a values-driven alternative that better serves U.S. interests and global stability.
Trump’s “Mitigated Disaster”
Vindman began with the latest flashpoint: proposals floated by former President Trump to accept Moscow’s framing on eastern Ukrainian territory in exchange for a vague “security guarantee” and major arms deals financed by Europe. While some elements—like arming Ukraine and replenishing European stockpiles—are defensible on their own, Vindman argued the package amounts to strategic capitulation. It elevates Putin without extracting meaningful concessions and even dangles the notion of a Russian (and possibly Chinese) veto over European defense—an arrangement utterly incompatible with NATO.
Ukraine’s Position: No Formal Concessions
Publicly, Kyiv rejects territorial concessions. Vindman noted that any sustainable peace will likely leave some questions unsettled in the near term, recognizing the hard reality of current Russian occupation. But that is not the same as legitimizing annexation. Handing over strategically vital, Ukrainian-controlled ground would expose central Ukraine and invite future aggression—making the proposal a non-starter.
Russia’s War of Attrition—and Its Limits
Russia is trading lives for inches, accepting staggering casualties for modest territorial gains. Vindman’s assessment: Ukraine retains greater staying power. Its morale, competence at the unit level, and the continued (if uneven) support of Western partners have kept Moscow from achieving decisive breakthroughs. Russia’s economy and force generation are under strain, and sheer brutality is not a strategy for victory against a motivated nation fighting for survival.
How We Got Here: A 30-Year Pattern
The core of Vindman’s thesis is historical. Since the Soviet collapse, U.S. and European policy oscillated between fears (loose nukes, instability) and hopes (a “normal” Russia integrating with the West). Early caution was understandable, he conceded—but as evidence mounted of Moscow’s coercion and aggression (from “frozen conflicts” to Georgia in 2008), Western responses remained tentative. The real red line, he argues, was Crimea in 2014. Mild sanctions and reluctance to arm Ukraine telegraphed wobbling intent, encouraging Putin’s belief that further salami-slicing would face limited pushback.
The Folly of Realism
Vindman uses “realism” as shorthand for short-term, transactional statecraft that prizes immediate quiet over long-term stability. Across administrations, Washington too often treated Russia as uniquely indispensable, downplayed its revisionism, or personalized policy around presidential impressions of Putin. The result: repeated underestimation of threat, delayed deterrence, and compounding risks that culminated in full-scale war.
A Better Path: Neo-Idealism
Vindman’s alternative—neo-idealism—is not naive crusading. It is a pragmatic return to first principles: align policy with enduring democratic values because they are the surest route to long-term U.S. security and prosperity. That means consistent support for allies, credible deterrence, and investments in institutions like NATO and the EU. Values and interests are not opposites; values are how interests endure.
Why Ukraine Matters
Backing Ukraine is strategically efficient: it degrades a hostile actor without U.S. troops in combat, strengthens European security, counters authoritarian momentum, and undergirds the rules-based order that fuels American prosperity. As Vindman put it, supporting Ukraine is a high-return, values-consistent choice that helps prevent a darker world in which the strong simply prey on the weak.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.