Dennis Ross on Iran, Global Alliances, and the Future of the Middle East Conflict
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from January 29, 2026 | Israel, Gaza and the Middle East: What Lies Ahead? The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the speaker.
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, Ambassador Dennis Ross, counselor and distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a veteran U.S. diplomat with decades of experience in Middle East negotiations, explored the broader geopolitical forces shaping the region. The conversation expanded beyond Gaza to examine rising tensions with Iran, shifting global alliances, and the long-term prospects for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Rising Tensions with Iran
Ross pointed to the growing U.S. military presence near Iran, including a carrier strike group and tens of thousands of American personnel in the region, as a signal of escalating tensions. He noted that recent Iranian actions, particularly internal repression and mass violence against its own population, have raised the stakes for U.S. credibility after strong public warnings from President Trump.
The challenge, Ross explained, is that failing to respond risks weakening deterrence, while acting militarily could trigger broader consequences.
A Vulnerable but Dangerous Regime
Despite its aggressive posture, Ross described Iran as increasingly vulnerable. Its air defenses have been weakened, its population is deeply dissatisfied, and its leadership faces internal pressure. Yet those vulnerabilities make the regime more unpredictable.
“If survival is at stake,” Ross suggested, Iran may feel compelled to respond forcefully to any U.S. action, even if doing so carries significant risk. That dynamic creates a dangerous balance between restraint and escalation.
The Risk of Escalation
Ross outlined several possible scenarios, including a limited U.S. strike designed to impose a cost without triggering a wider war. However, he warned that even a “one-and-done” approach could spiral if Iran retaliates in ways that cause significant damage, such as attacks on U.S. forces or regional allies.
Iran’s arsenal of short-range missiles, drones, and cruise missiles gives it the capacity to target countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, raising concerns among U.S. partners in the region. The key uncertainty, Ross noted, is whether both sides can contain a confrontation once it begins.
A New Global Framework—or Fragmentation?
Ross also discussed the emerging “Board of Peace,” a U.S.-backed initiative that could serve as an alternative mechanism for addressing global conflicts. While some Middle Eastern countries have engaged with the idea, European nations have been more hesitant, viewing it as a potential competitor to existing international institutions like the United Nations.
At the same time, Ross observed that global alliances are shifting. European leaders, increasingly uncertain about long-term U.S. reliability, are beginning to act more collectively and independently. Meanwhile, countries like China are attempting to expand their influence by positioning themselves as stable global actors.
The West Bank and the Two-State Challenge
Turning to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Ross warned that ongoing settlement expansion in the West Bank threatens the possibility of a future Palestinian state. Policies that effectively annex territory, even without formal declarations, make a two-state solution harder to achieve.
Ross was clear in his assessment: a one-state outcome would likely lead to perpetual conflict. Two deeply rooted national identities competing for the same land cannot be reconciled under a single political framework without ongoing instability.
Conditions for Progress
While acknowledging that a two-state solution is not immediately achievable, Ross emphasized the importance of creating a pathway toward that goal. This requires action from both sides.
For Palestinians, that means addressing corruption, ending the role of independent militias, and embracing coexistence. For Israelis, it involves halting settlement expansion beyond established blocs and preventing violence against Palestinians.
Only through parallel steps, Ross argued, can trust begin to rebuild.
A Narrow Window of Opportunity
Ross concluded with cautious realism. The Middle East remains volatile, and the risks of escalation—particularly involving Iran—are significant. At the same time, he sees a potential opening for progress if leaders are willing to act responsibly and strategically.
The moment, he suggested, is not one of certainty, but of possibility. Whether that possibility is realized will depend on choices made not just in Gaza or Israel, but across the broader international landscape.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.
