Dennis Ross on the Choreographed Ceasefire: Navigating Iran, Israel, and U.S. Interests
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from June 23, 2025 | Israel in Crisis Briefing #22. The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the speaker.
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, veteran diplomat and Middle East expert Ambassador Dennis Ross joined journalist Patt Morrison to analyze breaking news of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. As a former point person for the Middle East peace process under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, Ross offered sharp insights into the strategic motivations behind the ceasefire, the choreography of symbolic retaliation, and what this moment reveals about shifting power dynamics in the region.
A Symbolic Exchange
According to Ross, the ceasefire’s timing and shape reflect more than coincidence—they signal a convergence of interests among all major players. Iran’s retaliatory strike was “highly symbolic,” designed to project strength without triggering a prolonged war. Israel, having eliminated most of its top-priority military targets, had little left to gain from further escalation. And President Trump, having authorized a decisive strike, was eager to avoid entanglement in a new Middle East conflict.
“The Iranians wanted to show they weren’t cowed,” Ross explained, “but they also didn’t want to escalate into something that could threaten the regime.” For Trump, the calculus was similar—demonstrate power, avoid a “forever war,” and walk away with a geopolitical win.
Behind the Curtain: Who Brokered the Deal?
While the ceasefire announcement came from President Trump, Ross suggested the diplomacy that enabled it may have been more complex—and indirect. Longtime Trump ally Steve Witkoff was initially assumed to be involved, but uncertainty during real-time reporting pointed to other players. Ross floated possible intermediaries, including Qatar, Russia, or Saudi Arabia.
“Someone had to be talking to the Iranians on behalf of the U.S.,” he said. “They may want to say they responded to another country—but it’s clear they needed to reach an understanding with Trump.”
This behind-the-scenes mediation suggests that while no formal negotiation table existed, the architecture of diplomacy still shaped the outcome.
What Was Gained—and What Was Lost
In Ross’s view, the ceasefire represents a decisive strategic victory for Israel, whose targeted strikes crippled Iran’s military leadership and severely disrupted its nuclear infrastructure. “The top 15 officers of Iran’s military—dead. Their Revolutionary Guard leadership—dead. Even the leaders of their liaison units with Hamas and Hezbollah—dead,” Ross said. “This was a systematic dismantling.”
Iran, by contrast, comes away with little more than regime survival. Though the country’s propaganda machine will claim victory, its internal economic collapse, electricity rationing, water shortages, and currency freefall paint a starkly different picture.
President Trump also comes out ahead, Ross argued, having taken a bold military step without alienating his base or dragging the U.S. into extended conflict. Despite vocal opposition from figures like Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon, Trump executed a limited operation that advanced U.S. and Israeli interests while reinforcing his image as a strong, decisive leader.
Choreography or Coincidence?
Though Ross acknowledged Morrison’s suggestion that the entire episode felt choreographed, he emphasized that even without formal coordination, shared goals can produce outcomes that seem pre-planned. “This wasn’t staged, but it was predictable,” he said. “Each actor was working within constraints—and those constraints aligned.”
The ceasefire’s 12-hour staggered implementation (Iran first, then Israel) may strike observers as imbalanced, but Ross urged patience, noting that declarations of intent are often followed by last-minute symbolic strikes. “Like the 1918 armistice,” he said, “everyone knows the hour—yet fighting doesn’t stop until it does.”
A Pause, Not a Peace
As the ceasefire looms, Ross warned that this moment—however dramatic—is a pause, not a resolution. Real peace, he argued, will require far more than symbolic exchanges. But by dissecting this moment with clarity and caution, Ross reminded viewers that diplomacy, deterrence, and timing remain as critical to Middle East stability as ever.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.