Escalation Dominance and the Iran Question: Aaron David Miller on How Israel Redefined the Balance
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from June 18, 2025 | Israel in Crisis: The Latest Challenges and Shifts. The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the speaker.
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, seasoned Middle East analyst and former U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller offered a sobering look into Israel’s military strategy, Iran’s nuclear threshold status, and the strategic bind facing former President Donald Trump. Drawing on decades of diplomatic experience under both Republican and Democratic administrations, Miller unpacked the motivations behind Israel’s bold military actions and the global consequences that could follow.
Escalation Dominance and Israel’s Strategic Advantage
Central to Miller’s analysis was the concept of “escalation dominance”—a term that describes a country’s ability to dictate the pace, intensity, and scope of conflict. According to Miller, Israel’s recent actions against Iran and Hezbollah reveal a calculated campaign to exploit its military superiority over adversaries like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran itself. The use of sophisticated air power and intelligence enabled Israel to act decisively and unilaterally, aiming to cripple Iran’s nuclear capabilities before negotiations could take hold.
As Miller noted, this dominance allowed Israel to “play soccer with Iran without a goalie”—a vivid metaphor underscoring the extent of Israel’s current advantage in the region.
The Failure of Diplomacy and the Timing of the Strike
Despite multiple rounds of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Oman, Miller argued that the talks were doomed from the outset. The gaps between the two countries were too wide, and the conditions for meaningful diplomacy—urgency, mutual gain, and realistic goals—were absent.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, aware of the diplomatic stalemate and emboldened by Israel’s strategic edge, made a calculated move. While Trump did not explicitly greenlight the Israeli operation, he also did not intervene. In fact, Miller revealed that Trump’s envoy was publicly engaged in talks just hours before the Israeli strikes, effectively lulling Iranian leadership into complacency—a deception that enabled Israel’s initial “decapitation” strikes to proceed unhindered.
Iran’s Nuclear Threshold and Regional Fallout
Miller emphasized that Iran remains a nuclear threshold state—possessing the knowledge and materials necessary to assemble a weapon within months. Although the Israeli strikes have caused substantial damage to facilities, scientists, and infrastructure, they have not erased Iran’s nuclear potential. The decentralized nature of Iran’s program means that even the destruction of key sites like Fordo will not guarantee long-term containment.
Should the U.S. abstain from joining the campaign, Miller warned, Iran could emerge from the conflict claiming resilience and strategic success—a potentially emboldening outcome for Tehran.
Trump’s Political Bind and Strategic Ambiguity
Miller also analyzed Trump’s unique position. Despite his “America First” rhetoric and promises to avoid new wars, Trump now finds himself cornered. If he declines to support Israel militarily, he risks appearing weak. If he authorizes a strike, he plunges the U.S. deeper into Middle Eastern conflict—possibly against the will of portions of his own political base.
“The war plans are already set,” Miller observed, “and Trump may feel he has no choice but to act.”
No Clear Endgame
As Miller pointed out, neither Israel nor the U.S. has outlined a viable “day after” strategy. Without a long-term plan, the situation risks further instability, escalation, and regional backlash. Miller closed with a caution: while Israel may have achieved tactical success, strategic victory remains elusive—and perhaps unreachable—without renewed international leadership and diplomacy.
In a world where dominance on the battlefield increasingly substitutes for diplomatic resolution, Miller’s insights are a stark reminder of the risks we face when escalation becomes policy.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.