From Ceasefire to Statehood: Ehud Olmert & Nasser Al-Kidwa on the Fastest Path Out of War
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from September 30, 2025 | Prospects for Israeli-Palestinian Peace: Lessons from Oslo & Trump’s 20-Point Plan. The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the speakers.
In a recent discussion organized by the UCLA Y&S Nazarian Center for Israel Studies and the UC Berkeley Helen Diller Institute for Jewish Law & Israel Studies, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and former Palestinian Foreign Minister Nasser Al-Kidwa—two veteran statesmen with deep experience in negotiation and governance—offered frank assessments of how to end the Gaza war and reopen a credible path to a two-state future. The conversation, framed around the 30th anniversary of the Oslo II agreement, also asked both leaders to react to the White House’s newly announced plan aimed at ceasefire, reconstruction, and eventual Palestinian statehood.
The Moment: Oslo’s Anniversary Meets a New Proposal
The event was scheduled to mark the September 28, 1995 signing of Oslo II, but it unfolded a day after a dramatic White House announcement laying out a plan to halt fighting, return hostages, spur reconstruction, and set a political horizon. Regional and international reactions were swift: statements of support from a group of Arab and Muslim countries, a call from the U.N. Secretary-General to move toward implementation, and global leaders urging momentum—while Hamas said it would “study” the proposal.
What’s Actually New—And What Isn’t
Olmert argued that many core elements presented at the White House closely track ideas he and Al-Kidwa jointly advanced in July 2024: a comprehensive ceasefire; a hostage–prisoner exchange; an interim security force to take over in Gaza; and a phased but complete Israeli withdrawal. The question, he suggested, is less about invention than implementation—why these steps weren’t pursued sooner, and whether they can be executed now.
Trump vs. Netanyahu: Key Points of Divergence
Both speakers flagged a gap between the President’s presentation and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s public framing. On two-state outcomes, the presidential remarks left statehood “as an option,” whereas Netanyahu has explicitly rejected Palestinian statehood. On withdrawal mechanics, the White House materials seemed to envision phased pullout without new preconditions; Netanyahu’s version layered in conditions and discretion. Translation: expect negotiations, whatever “take-it-or-leave-it” rhetoric may claim.
Who Governs Gaza—And How
Al-Kidwa cautioned against any arrangement that makes an international “board” the governing authority in Gaza, saying Palestinians will not accept external rule. Olmert offered a refinement: a Palestinian governor—endorsed by, but not subordinate to, the Palestinian Authority—with independent executive powers to run Gaza day-to-day, while an international board functions more like an appeals or oversight body to resolve disputes during implementation.
External Actors: Weight and Trust
Both saw value in robust U.S. engagement—an American president personally chairing a coordination body would be unusual and consequential. On Tony Blair’s prospective role, Al-Kidwa voiced skepticism rooted in regional perceptions of Iraq-era decisions; Olmert countered that Blair’s Middle East fluency and presumed pre-clearance by key Arab states could make him a net positive.
The Near-Term Decision Tree
Al-Kidwa predicted Hamas will seek guaranteed withdrawal before surrendering all hostages, making an immediate green-light unlikely. Olmert agreed that, despite declarations to the contrary, talks are inevitable as the sides wrangle over sequencing, security handoff, and verification. Spoilers exist “on both sides,” he warned, and their timing and tactics may determine whether the process stalls or advances.
The Road to “Day After”
Both leaders outlined a practical sequence: sustained cessation of hostilities; hostage and prisoner releases; deployment of an interim security force; rapid humanitarian and reconstruction surge; and, crucially, a political horizon—credible negotiations toward a two-state framework that addresses borders, governance, security, settlers, and refugees. For Olmert and Al-Kidwa, the endgame is not romantic; it is executable. The real test is leadership willing to move from speeches to structures—fast.
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