Paul Maslin and Mike Murphy on Why the 2026 Midterms Will Be All About the Economy
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from July 23, 2025 | What Does Washington’s Chaos Portend for the 2026 Midterms? The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the speaker.
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, political strategists Paul Maslin and Mike Murphy joined Patt Morrison to unpack the forces shaping the 2026 midterm elections. Maslin, a longtime Democratic pollster, and Murphy, a veteran Republican campaign advisor turned critic of Trumpism, focused their analysis on the importance of economic messaging, the staying power of populism, and the perils of political distraction. Their central thesis was clear: economic pain, not scandal or cultural skirmishes, will define the next electoral battlefield.
It's the Economy, Again
Both Maslin and Murphy returned repeatedly to one theme: Democrats must anchor their messaging in economic realities. Despite headlines about scandal or spectacle—from Trump’s reversal on Epstein files to culture war theatrics—the panelists insisted that economic insecurity is what moves votes.
Murphy summed it up bluntly: “Trump’s had 11 bankruptcies and now he’s working on yours.”
With inflation, job insecurity, and health care access top of mind for working- and middle-class voters, they warned that Democrats must focus less on fact-checking Trump’s falsehoods and more on connecting policy to people’s daily struggles.
Populism Is Here to Stay
Both strategists noted that economic populism is no longer the domain of a single party. Trumpism, they argued, isn’t a traditional conservative movement—it’s a populist one, with deep roots in cultural resentment and economic dislocation.
Maslin emphasized that while Trump remains a lightning rod, his supporters are often driven by a broader distrust in institutions and elites. The result is a durable populist undercurrent that Democrats ignore at their peril.
Murphy warned that Trump will inevitably try to shift the focus from economic woes to cultural division. “When he’s losing the economic argument,” Murphy said, “he starts a culture war—and the Democrats almost always take the bait.”
Redistricting Battles and Structural Headwinds
The conversation also touched on Republican efforts to protect vulnerable House seats through redistricting, particularly in states like Texas. While these structural maneuvers may help the GOP at the margins, Murphy urged Democrats not to rely on courts or outrage to win.
“Stop pearl clutching,” he said. “Get an economic message and go beat them.”
Maslin agreed, adding that even as redistricting tilts the playing field, a disciplined message rooted in people’s material conditions—like health care, wages, and affordability—can still break through.
The Power and Potential of Young Voters
The strategists saw reason for hope in recent political developments, especially the energy among younger voters and candidates. The success of progressive New York City mayoral candidate Zak Malamed, for example, signaled to Maslin that the Democratic Party needs to embrace generational change.
“If the Democratic Party has a choice between being old and rotten or young and crazy,” Maslin said, “I’m going young and crazy every time. We can work on the crazy.”
Both Maslin and Murphy underscored the need for authenticity and urgency in outreach to younger voters, many of whom are motivated by economic pressures like housing affordability and student debt.
Fight Smart, Stay Focused
Despite the challenges, both guests ended with a message of tough optimism. To win, Democrats need to stop playing defense and start fighting on ground that matters to everyday voters. That means shelving identity-heavy appeals in favor of a sharp, consistent economic narrative.
As Murphy put it, “Whining doesn’t win fights. Political organization and hard work does.”
In 2026, the economy won’t just be a talking point—it will be the battlefield. And whether Democrats win or lose may come down to whether they stay focused on that fact.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.