What Comes After: Dennis Ross on Iran’s Decline and the Next Diplomatic Opening
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from June 23, 2025 | Israel in Crisis Briefing #22. The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the speaker.
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, Ambassador Dennis Ross, former U.S. envoy and senior Middle East advisor, joined journalist Patt Morrison to provide a timely and sobering analysis of Iran’s vulnerabilities in the wake of recent Israeli military action and a tentative ceasefire. Drawing on decades of diplomatic experience and insights from his new book, Statecraft 2.0, Ross outlined why Iran may now be entering one of the most fragile phases in its modern history—and why that could open a new chapter for regional diplomacy.
Internal Crisis, External Blow
Ross detailed the extraordinary scale of destruction inflicted on Iran’s security and nuclear infrastructure. “They lost the top 15 officers of the military, the leadership of the Revolutionary Guard, their liaison commanders to Hamas and Hezbollah—many thought to be hidden and untouchable,” he said. Perhaps even more destabilizing: Israel’s campaign eliminated 11 of Iran’s 12 senior nuclear scientists.
But Iran was already teetering. Ross pointed to collapsing currency values, forced electricity rationing, and catastrophic water shortages. “This is a country that exports oil and gas, and yet it has to ration electricity to government buildings and schools,” he noted. These foundational failures, he suggested, now intersect with a national trauma: the decapitation of Iran’s long-developed military and nuclear command.
Regime Collapse or Regime Change?
Ross distinguished between “regime change” as imposed from outside—a tactic the U.S. has historically mishandled—and “regime collapse” from within. Iran’s ruling elite, he argued, may be more vulnerable than ever. But timing is uncertain, and warning signs are subtle.
“What would worry the regime is if the besieged security forces hesitate to fire on protestors, or if the Revolutionary Guard shows signs of internal fracture,” he said. A real trigger, he added, could be the eventual death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, an authoritarian transition without a clear succession plan. Competing factions within the security establishment may then reach outward to the public for legitimacy, creating cracks in the system’s coherence.
A Window for Negotiation
With their infrastructure in ruins and regional standing diminished, Iranian leaders may now be quietly seeking a path out. Ross shared reports from the region that Iran had approached Arab intermediaries, signaling a willingness to negotiate—even hinting they might give up enrichment, if granted a “face-saver.”
That opens the door to renewed diplomacy—but not on the old terms. “You’d need ironclad verification and monitoring. No more hiding sites or restricting inspectors from military facilities,” Ross said. “There can be no illusions this time.”
He emphasized that any future agreement must not only limit nuclear development but also address Iran’s ballistic missile program and terror proxy networks. With $40 billion lost in Syria alone, Iran’s own elites are now questioning the strategic value of these expensive, failed ventures.
A Diplomatic Realignment
Ross sees this moment as a potential regional inflection point. Iran’s diminished threat may reinvigorate normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia, once the war in Gaza concludes. The Arab world—particularly Gulf states like Jordan—wants stability and fears escalation.
“Ending the Gaza conflict, releasing hostages, and beginning reconstruction—ideally without Hamas—could create a broader peace-building process,” Ross explained. “It would allow Arab leaders to begin re-engaging with Israel and press both sides toward progress on the Palestinian issue.”
The Path Forward
While cautioning that diplomacy won’t happen overnight, Ross expressed cautious optimism. “We’re not there yet,” he said, “but the region looks profoundly different than it did just a month ago. The question now is whether we can turn this strategic turning point into a political breakthrough.”
For those looking ahead, Ross’s message was clear: Iran’s regime is weaker, the region more open to change, and the window—though narrow—is not yet closed.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.