Ron Brownstein: America’s Changing Political Map and the Road to 2028
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from September 9, 2026 | Midterms: Who’s Winning the Battle for America’s Future. The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the speaker.
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, political analyst and journalist Ron Brownstein explored how the 2026 midterm elections reflect a broader transformation in American politics. Beyond individual candidates and battleground states, Brownstein examined the changing coalitions of both major parties, the growing divide between college-educated and working-class voters, and what today’s political realignment could mean as the country looks toward 2028.
A More Partisan Political Map
One of the most striking changes Brownstein identified is the increasingly close relationship between presidential and Senate voting.
During the 1980s, voters routinely supported one party for president and another for Senate. Brownstein noted that after Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush carried 38 states in three consecutive presidential elections, Democrats still controlled a majority of the Senate seats in those states.
Today, that kind of crossover representation is far less common. Brownstein pointed out that Republicans hold all 50 Senate seats in the 25 states Trump carried in each of his three presidential campaigns.
That consolidation has created an enormous strategic challenge for Democrats: expanding their Senate coalition increasingly requires winning in states that have repeatedly voted Republican for president.
The Education and Class Divide
The House reflects another dimension of this realignment.
Democrats made substantial gains during Trump’s first presidency in suburban districts with large numbers of college-educated voters. Many of those districts are now already Democratic, leaving fewer similar Republican seats available to target.
That means future gains increasingly depend on competing for working-class voters, particularly non-college white voters who have shifted toward Republicans.
Brownstein sees competing forces within this group. Many voters are dissatisfied with the economy and increasingly critical of Trump, but significant skepticism toward Democrats remains.
Candidates Versus Party Brands
That distrust places greater importance on candidates establishing identities separate from their national parties.
Republicans in competitive states face their own version of this problem. Distancing themselves from Trump could jeopardize support from his political base, while embracing him could make it harder to win voters dissatisfied with his presidency.
For Democrats competing in Republican-leaning areas, Brownstein suggested that success may depend on convincing voters they are independent voices rather than simply representatives of the national Democratic Party.
The Road to 2028
These tensions extend beyond the midterms. Brownstein described competing Democratic theories for 2028: nominate a progressive candidate capable of generating greater turnout or choose a more centrist figure who may reassure voters seeking a change in direction.
The larger challenge may be bridging those approaches. Brownstein suggested that a new generation of leadership capable of connecting the party’s ideological wings could emerge as particularly important.
Viewed through that lens, 2026 is more than a congressional election. It is another test of how America’s political coalitions are changing—and where both parties may be headed next.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.