Ron Brownstein: The “Wave and the Wall” Shaping the 2026 Midterms
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from September 9, 2026 | Midterms: Who’s Winning the Battle for America’s Future. The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the speaker.
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, political analyst and journalist Ron Brownstein examined the forces shaping the 2026 midterm elections and the battle for control of Congress. Looking across competitive House and Senate races, Brownstein offered a simple framework for understanding a complicated political landscape: the election is increasingly becoming a contest between what he calls the “wave and the wall.”
A Growing Wave of Discontent
The “wave,” Brownstein explained, is the growing dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the direction of the country. From perceptions of the economy and cost of living to presidential approval and voter enthusiasm, Brownstein sees signs of an environment that could create significant challenges for Republicans.
History provides important context. Midterm elections often become referendums on the president, with voters who disapprove of the president overwhelmingly supporting candidates from the opposing party. Brownstein noted that Trump’s current disapproval creates a potentially powerful current working against Republican candidates.
But 2026 is not simply a repeat of 2018.
A Higher Republican Wall
The “wall” is the difficult electoral terrain Democrats must overcome. Compared with 2018, when Democrats could target numerous Republican-held House districts that had supported Hillary Clinton two years earlier, far fewer such opportunities exist today.
Instead, much of the 2026 battle is taking place on Republican turf. Many of the Senate seats Democrats are contesting are in states Trump won in 2024, some by double digits. The House battlefield increasingly includes districts with large populations of non-college white voters, a group that has moved toward Republicans over the past decade.
These voters present Democrats with both an opportunity and a challenge. Brownstein said many are pessimistic about the economy, dissatisfied with Trump and skeptical of policies such as tariffs. Yet many also remain deeply skeptical of the Democratic Party.
Alaska as a Test Case
Few races illustrate this dynamic better than Alaska’s Senate contest.
Brownstein pointed to Democrat Mary Peltola’s strong political profile and primary performance in a state with a long Republican history. Alaska has rarely elected Democrats to the Senate, making it exactly the kind of state where the competing forces Brownstein describes collide.
For candidates like Peltola, the question may be whether voters view the election primarily as a judgment on the country’s direction or as a decision about which party they trust to control Washington.
Which Force Will Prevail?
That same question extends across the congressional map. Democrats may benefit from widespread dissatisfaction with the president, but translating that dissatisfaction into victories requires them to persuade voters in places where distrust of their party remains strong.
For Brownstein, that tension makes 2026 fundamentally different from earlier wave elections. The wave may be substantial—but the wall it must overcome is higher too.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.