Dalia Dassa Kaye on Iran: A War Without Strategy and Rising Global Risks
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from March 25, 2026 | The High Stakes of U.S. Policy on Iran: America’s Choices in a Dangerous Moment. The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the speaker.
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, Dalia Dassa Kaye, a senior fellow at UCLA and former director of the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy, joined moderator Robin Wright to examine the escalating conflict with Iran. Drawing on decades of regional expertise, Kaye offered a sobering assessment of a war she argues is defined by tactical wins but strategic confusion.
Tactical Success, Strategic Uncertainty
Kaye did not mince words in her opening: the war, she argued, is “not going well.” While the U.S. and its allies have achieved operational successes—including eliminating key Iranian leaders—these actions have not translated into meaningful strategic gains. The central issue, she noted, is the absence of a clearly defined objective. Without a coherent end goal, even successful military actions risk becoming disconnected from broader policy outcomes.
A Break from Historical Restraint
For decades, U.S. policy toward Iran relied on containment, deterrence, and diplomacy. Direct military confrontation was consistently avoided due to the high risks involved. Kaye emphasized that this conflict marks a significant departure from that approach, representing the first time the United States has directly engaged Iranian territory at this scale. That shift, she suggested, has introduced a level of volatility not previously seen.
Miscalculations and Escalation
A key driver of the current situation, according to Kaye, is overconfidence. The belief that military force could deliver quick, low-cost results—similar to past targeted strikes—has proven misguided. Instead of collapsing, Iran has adapted. In asymmetric conflicts, Kaye explained, survival itself is a form of victory. Iran is not winning outright, but it is not losing—and in some ways, it is gaining leverage.
Global Consequences of a Regional War
One of the most alarming developments is Iran’s ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. This has transformed the conflict from a regional war into a global economic crisis, with ripple effects impacting markets, supply chains, and international stability. Kaye warned that the consequences extend far beyond the Middle East, affecting everything from energy prices to geopolitical alliances.
An Uncertain Endgame
Perhaps most concerning is the lack of clarity around what success looks like. Objectives have shifted—from regime change to degrading capabilities to securing shipping lanes—without a consistent framework. Even if the fighting stops, Kaye cautioned that the likely outcome is a more hardline Iranian leadership, increased regional instability, and diminished U.S. credibility.
A Call for Course Correction
Kaye concluded with a clear recommendation: stop the escalation and return to diplomacy. Continuing the conflict, she argued, will only increase costs—both human and financial—while deepening long-term risks. In a region where unintended consequences often outweigh initial intentions, she stressed the urgent need for a more strategic and measured approach.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.
