Dennis Ross on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and the Limits of American Leverage
JUDJ-Prepared Summary from July 8, 2026 | Iran, Israel, and America: Where Are We and Where Do We Go From Here? The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the speaker.
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, Dennis Ross, a veteran diplomat and former senior Middle East adviser to multiple U.S. presidents, examined the renewed conflict with Iran, the limits of military force and the difficult choices facing the United States and its regional partners.
A Diplomatic Opening Unravels
President Donald Trump viewed a memorandum of understanding with Iran as a potential path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reducing disruptions to the global economy. In exchange, the United States eased several economic restrictions, allowing Iran to sell its oil more freely.
But continued Iranian attacks on commercial shipping undermined the arrangement and prompted renewed American military strikes. According to Ross, the collapse of the understanding has effectively returned the United States and Iran to “square one,” with neither side having secured a lasting solution.
Iran Is Weaker, but the Threat Remains
U.S. and Israeli strikes significantly damaged Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile capabilities and defense industrial base. Iran is now objectively weaker, Ross explained, but important uncertainties remain. Some highly enriched uranium may have survived underground, along with a substantial portion of the country’s missile inventory.
Ross noted that Iran may already have been unable to access some of its buried nuclear material before the latest fighting. Even so, military action has not resolved the underlying nuclear question or produced a durable political outcome.
The United States could escalate further by targeting additional military, industrial and energy infrastructure. However, Iran could retaliate against desalination plants, energy facilities and other vulnerable civilian targets throughout the Gulf. Even highly effective regional defense systems cannot intercept every incoming weapon, and the few that penetrate could cause extensive damage.
Gulf States Confront New Vulnerabilities
Iran’s attacks have also forced Gulf governments to reconsider long-held assumptions about their security. The presence of U.S. military bases did not prevent Tehran from launching attacks, exposing weaknesses in regional defenses and raising new questions about deterrence.
Ross does not expect Gulf countries to abandon their relationships with Washington. Instead, they may pursue limited accommodations with Iran while continuing to rely on the United States for protection. At the same time, the conflict could encourage closer coordination among Israel, Arab governments and U.S. Central Command.
No Easy Endgame
The central challenge is finding a way to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear and missile programs without triggering a prolonged regional war. Ross recalled that Iran complied with the 2015 nuclear agreement while it remained in effect, although key restrictions were set to expire over time.
Trump may ultimately declare that U.S. objectives have been achieved while reserving the right to strike again if Iran attempts to recover nuclear material. But Ross’s analysis makes clear that military success alone cannot substitute for a sustainable strategy. Iran may be diminished, but the danger of escalation—and the need for diplomacy—remain.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.