The Evolving Dynamics of the Israel-Hamas Conflict: Geopolitical Realignments and Strategic Shifts
February 23, 2025 | Aluf Benn with Patt Morrison: Israel in Crisis Briefing #21
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, Aluf Benn, a veteran journalist and editor-in-chief of Haaretz, provided deep insights into the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, the role of global political realignments, and the shifting strategies of Israeli leadership. With decades of experience covering Middle Eastern affairs in publications like The New York Times and Foreign Affairs, Benn examined how recent developments, including the reelection of Donald Trump and the evolving ceasefire negotiations, are reshaping the geopolitical landscape. His conversation shed light on the delicate balance between military strategy, diplomatic maneuvering, and public sentiment in Israel.
The Impact of U.S. Elections on Israel’s Strategy
The return of Donald Trump to the White House has significantly influenced Israel’s handling of the conflict. According to Benn, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delayed finalizing a ceasefire and hostage exchange deal, waiting for Trump’s administration to take over negotiations. This strategic delay suggests Netanyahu’s preference for securing diplomatic victories under a more favorable U.S. administration, as Trump has historically been more aligned with right-wing Israeli policies.
Trump’s proposal for the future of Gaza, which includes relocating its population and repurposing the territory for other uses, has gained traction among Israel’s right-wing factions. However, such proposals raise serious legal, moral, and strategic concerns, particularly in relation to international law and the stability of neighboring countries like Jordan and Egypt. These developments underscore how U.S. political shifts continue to shape Israel’s military and diplomatic calculus.
The Ongoing Battle Between War and Diplomacy
One of the most pressing issues in Israel today is whether to prioritize the continuation of the war against Hamas or to focus on securing the release of the remaining hostages. The recent release of three Israeli hostages in dire health conditions has intensified public pressure on Netanyahu’s government to expedite negotiations. A growing majority of Israelis now support a deal that would bring all hostages home, even if it means making concessions to Hamas.
However, Netanyahu faces significant political risks. His far-right coalition partners demand the continuation of military operations to achieve the complete eradication of Hamas, threatening to collapse the government if he concedes too much. On the other hand, prolonging the war risks alienating Israel’s key ally, the United States, which favors a diplomatic resolution. Benn emphasized that this delicate balancing act places Netanyahu in one of the toughest political positions of his career.
Regional Military and Diplomatic Strategy
Beyond Gaza, Israel is engaged in complex military and diplomatic maneuvers on multiple fronts. The conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon has escalated, with Israel delivering severe blows to the group’s leadership and military capabilities. The situation in Syria is also evolving, with Israel establishing a security zone to prevent the new Syrian government from deploying military forces near the Israeli border.
These military operations serve multiple purposes. Firstly, they reinforce Israel’s regional dominance and deter threats from groups like Hezbollah. Secondly, they allow Netanyahu to divert attention away from Gaza, potentially alleviating some of the pressure from his right-wing coalition partners. However, the expansion of military operations into Syria raises concerns about prolonged regional instability and potential backlash from global powers.
The Bigger Picture: Shifting Alliances in the Middle East
Benn highlighted how Israel’s diplomatic strategies are adapting to broader shifts in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, a key player in regional politics, has been hesitant to finalize normalization agreements with Israel while the war in Gaza continues. Trump and his administration view Israeli-Saudi normalization as a critical geopolitical goal, but ongoing hostilities could delay or derail those efforts.
Meanwhile, Iran’s influence in the region is waning, especially following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. However, Israel remains wary of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the possibility of renewed hostilities. While the U.S. has historically discouraged Israeli military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, the shifting power dynamics could reignite debates over whether Israel should take preemptive action.
Conclusion
The Israel-Hamas conflict remains at a crossroads, influenced by shifting global politics, military maneuvers, and internal Israeli divisions. As Netanyahu navigates pressure from his coalition, public opinion, and international allies, the path forward remains uncertain. Whether through continued military action or a renewed push for diplomacy, Israel’s next moves will have profound implications for the region’s stability.
As Aluf Benn pointed out, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether Israel leans further into war or takes steps toward a negotiated resolution. With the U.S., regional players, and Israeli leadership each weighing their options, the future of the conflict remains in flux—one that could reshape the Middle East for years to come.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.