Navigating Global Crises: Insights from a Former Ambassador to Russia with Michael McFaul and Larry Diamond
November 20, 2024 | Ambassador Michael McFaul with Larry Diamond | The Election Is Over: What Do the Results Mean for Ukraine, the Middle East, and U.S. Foreign Policy? – Summary Prepared by JUDJ Team
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, Ambassador Michael McFaul, an esteemed expert in international relations and former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, shared his perspective on the challenges and opportunities that could shape global diplomacy under changing U.S. leadership. With two major wars raging and the potential for further geopolitical instability, McFaul emphasized the critical role of American foreign policy in addressing these crises. This blog explores his analysis of immediate conflict zones, long-term global threats, and the broader implications of U.S. leadership.
Urgent Crises: Ukraine and the Middle East
The War in Ukraine
Ukraine remains at the forefront of global concern, as Russia’s invasion continues to reshape the geopolitical landscape. McFaul highlighted the potential risks and rewards of a second Trump administration’s approach to this conflict. Trump’s pledge to end the war in 24 hours reflects his transactional approach to diplomacy, but it raises questions about how much he would concede to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may attempt to leverage personal similarities with Trump to secure U.S. support, McFaul warned that Trump’s inclination to prioritize U.S.-Russia relations over Ukrainian sovereignty could result in territorial concessions. This, he argued, would not only devastate Ukraine but also embolden other autocratic leaders, such as China’s Xi Jinping, by signaling U.S. weakness.
The Middle East Conflict
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas further complicates global stability. McFaul supported Israel’s right to defend itself but expressed disappointment in the lack of progress toward a two-state solution. While Trump has touted his diplomatic ties with Israel and Saudi Arabia, McFaul doubted whether his administration would prioritize long-term peacebuilding over short-term agreements.
McFaul also addressed concerns about Trump’s nominee for U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Mick Mulvaney, whose appointment could shape the administration’s approach to the region. While normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations is possible, McFaul argued that it must be pursued with a focus on resolving underlying tensions between Israel and Palestine to ensure lasting peace.
Long-Term Geopolitical Threats
The Russia-China-North Korea Axis
McFaul highlighted the deepening ties between autocratic states like Russia, China, and North Korea as a significant challenge. North Korea’s increasing military collaboration with Russia, including the deployment of troops, raises concerns about its missile program and its implications for U.S. allies in South Korea and Japan.
The possibility of China escalating tensions over Taiwan is also a pressing concern. McFaul emphasized the interconnectedness of these conflicts, warning that a weakened U.S. response in Ukraine could embolden Xi Jinping to act more aggressively in Asia. Strengthening alliances with democratic nations in the region, such as Japan and South Korea, is critical to maintaining stability.
NATO and European Security
One of the most alarming potential scenarios McFaul discussed is a U.S. withdrawal from NATO, a possibility that Trump has alluded to in the past. Such a move would undermine decades of transatlantic security and leave frontline states like Poland and the Baltic nations vulnerable to Russian aggression. McFaul cautioned that even minor signals of U.S. disengagement could embolden Vladimir Putin to test NATO’s resolve through provocations or limited incursions.
The Broader Stakes for U.S. Leadership
Beyond immediate and long-term crises, McFaul stressed the importance of the United States maintaining its leadership role in promoting democracy and countering autocracy worldwide. He warned that domestic polarization and a retreat from global engagement could weaken America’s standing and inspire autocratic regimes to challenge democratic norms.
McFaul also highlighted the connection between domestic and international policy, arguing that a strong and united democracy at home is essential for effective global leadership. The world’s democracies, he noted, look to the U.S. for leadership and stability. A failure to deliver on these expectations could lead allies to seek alternatives, fracturing the global order.
A Call to Action
McFaul’s analysis underscores the complexity of the challenges facing U.S. foreign policy. From the battlefields of Ukraine to the halls of NATO, the decisions made in the coming years will determine not only the fate of key global conflicts but also America’s role in the world. As McFaul eloquently put it, this is a time for informed and committed leadership, both at home and abroad.
In this pivotal moment, the United States must reaffirm its commitment to democratic values and global alliances. The stakes are too high to do otherwise.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.