The Evolution and Impact of Trump’s Foreign Policy Doctrine with Michael McFaul and Larry Diamond
November 20, 2024 | Ambassador Michael McFaul with Larry Diamond | The Election Is Over: What Do the Results Mean for Ukraine, the Middle East, and U.S. Foreign Policy? – Summary Prepared by JUDJ Team
In a recent America at a Crossroads discussion, Ambassador Michael McFaul, a leading expert on international relations and former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, shared his insights on what a second Trump administration could mean for American foreign policy. The conversation explored how Donald Trump’s unique worldview diverges from historical U.S. norms and how his potential return to power might reshape America’s role on the global stage. This blog breaks down McFaul’s analysis of Trump’s foreign policy philosophy, its departure from established practices, and the implications for the world.
A Bold Shift in America’s Approach to the World
Donald Trump’s foreign policy doctrine represents a significant departure from the bipartisan consensus that has guided U.S. engagement since World War II. According to McFaul, this doctrine can be summarized in three key principles: disengagement, unilateralism, and an affinity for autocratic leaders.
Historically, U.S. foreign policy has been defined by its commitment to global engagement, alliances, and the promotion of democracy. From NATO to the Paris Climate Accord, America has sought to lead through partnerships and shared values. Trump, however, has disrupted these traditions, championing isolationism and unilateral actions. His first term saw the U.S. withdrawal from major agreements, such as the Iran nuclear deal, the Paris Climate Accord, and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, signaling a retreat from multilateralism.
Trump’s relationships with authoritarian leaders further underscore his departure from democratic norms. McFaul highlighted Trump’s open admiration for figures like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un while neglecting relationships with democratic opposition leaders in countries like Belarus and China. This marks a striking contrast to previous administrations, which prioritized human rights and democratic ideals in their diplomatic efforts.
What Could a Second Trump Term Look Like?
McFaul emphasized that a second Trump administration would likely amplify these trends, citing three key differences from his first term:
- A Shift in Personnel
Trump’s first term included many traditional conservatives who adhered to established policy norms. However, McFaul noted that Trump’s second-term team would likely consist of loyalists with less traditional backgrounds. For example, potential appointees such as Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence) and Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense) raise questions about qualifications and adherence to democratic principles. - A Perceived Mandate for Radical Change
Trump and his supporters view his potential re-election as a mandate to disrupt the so-called “Deep State.” This belief may embolden efforts to dismantle traditional foreign policy institutions, such as the State Department and intelligence agencies, in favor of a more centralized and autocratic approach. - A Deeper Understanding of Bureaucratic Levers
McFaul pointed out that Trump’s first term was marked by a lack of familiarity with the intricacies of the foreign policy apparatus. In a second term, Trump would likely wield a more refined understanding of how to achieve his goals, potentially leading to even greater shifts in U.S. policy.
Global Implications of Trump’s Foreign Policy Doctrine
The potential return of Trump to the White House could have profound consequences for international relations. McFaul warned that Trump’s isolationist stance could weaken alliances, embolden autocratic leaders, and create power vacuums in critical regions. This retreat from global leadership risks undermining decades of bipartisan efforts to promote stability and democracy worldwide.
Additionally, Trump’s aversion to multilateralism may leave the U.S. increasingly isolated on the world stage. Allies in Europe and Asia, uncertain of American commitment, might pursue independent strategies, potentially fragmenting the international order. For adversaries like Russia and China, a diminished U.S. presence could provide opportunities to expand their influence.
A Crossroads for America’s Role in the World
McFaul’s analysis underscores the critical juncture at which American foreign policy stands. The potential for a second Trump administration raises urgent questions about the country’s commitment to global engagement, democratic values, and alliance-building. As McFaul aptly put it, the choices made in the coming years will determine whether the U.S. continues to lead the Free World or retreats into isolation.
As the global landscape becomes increasingly complex, the need for informed, thoughtful leadership has never been greater. The world will be watching as America navigates this pivotal moment in its history.
About America at a Crossroads
Since April 2020, America at a Crossroads has produced weekly virtual programs on topics related to the preservation of our democracy, voting rights, freedom of the press, and a wide array of civil rights, including abortion rights, free speech, and free press. America at a Crossroads is a project of Jews United for Democracy & Justice.